Volume 11, Issue 24, July - December 2025

Impact of Climatic Variables on Tomato Production in Nigeria

Onyenma GC¹, Edaba MEI², Aroyehun AR^1♦

¹Department of Agricultural Economics and Agribusiness Management, University of Port Harcourt, Rivers State, Nigeria
²Department of Agricultural Economics and Extension, University of Africa, Toru-Orua, Bayelsa State, Nigeria

^♦Corresponding author
Aroyehun AR, Department of Agricultural Economics and Agribusiness Management, University of Port Harcourt, Rivers State, Nigeria

ABSTRACT

Tomatoes are an excellent source of minerals and antioxidants (potassium, phosphorus, vitamins A, B, and C). Domestic consumption and demand are rising as a result of population increase and seasonal changes in output caused by climatic variability, both of which have grown prevalent in Nigeria. Hence, this study examined the impact of climatic variables on tomato production in Nigeria using time series data from 1980 to 2021 on tomato production. Data were analyzed using Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) and Phillips-Perron (PP), Johansen cointegration test, Vector Error Correlation Models (VECM), and Mann-Kendall test. Results from ADF and PP indicate that all the variables were stationary at the first difference orders. The Johansen cointegration result showed the presence of a long-run relationship, while VECM showed the short-run relationship of climatic factors on tomato production. Equally, the coefficient of Error Correction (EC2) confirmed the existence of a long-run relationship between tomato production and climatic variables. The Mann-Kendall test result showed that the Kendall tau (correlation coefficient) of temperature is positive and indicates increasing trend in temperature while that of rainfall was negative, indicating decreasing trend in rains as it affects tomato production in Nigeria. The study therefore recommended adoption of sustainable agricultural practices, efficient irrigation system and other climate innovative solutions for tomato production so as to increase and sustain tomato production in Nigeria.

Keywords: Climate change, Error Correlation, Mann-Kendall, Tomato production, VECM.

Discovery Agriculture, 2025, 11, e11da3129

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Published: 07 August 2025