Volume 24, Issue 74, July - December, 2023

Ensemble modeling of Rhododendron arboreum distribution in Nepal: Assessing current patterns and projecting future changes

Samit Kafle^1♦, Divya Thapa², Keshav Ghimire³, Jeetendra Gautam¹

¹Agriculture and Forestry University, Faculty of Forestry, Hetauda 44100, Nepal
²Institute of Science and Technology, Tribhuvan University, Kathmandu 44618, Nepal
³Forest Research and Training Centre, Kathmandu 44618, Nepal

^♦Corresponding author
Agriculture and Forestry University, Faculty of Forestry, Hetauda 44100, Nepal

ABSTRACT

This research article presents a comprehensive analysis of the distribution patterns of Rhododendron arboreum in Nepal, encompassing the current distribution and future projections. We employed an ensemble approach by combining eight selected models with AUC > 0.8. Resulting ensemble model demonstrated remarkable predictive accuracy, achieving an AUC value of 0.97 and a TSS value of 0.77. Our analysis unveiled that within total land area of Nepal, approximately 115,317.1 km2 were deemed unsuitable for Rhododendron arboreum, while 32,198.89 km2 were identified as suitable habitats. Future projections for 2050 and 2070 under the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios showed significant changes in habitat suitability. By 2050, under SSP2-4.5, 10,710.39 km2 were projected to be lost, while 4,792.78 km2 were gained. Under SSP5-8.5, more significant loss of 14,237.64 km2 and a smaller gain of 5,696.41 km2 were anticipated. In 2070, further losses in suitable habitat were projected under both scenarios. A consistent upward movement in the suitable habitat elevation range was observed from the current period to the projected years of 2050 and 2070. These findings underscore the urgency of implementing proactive conservation measures to safeguard Rhododendron arboreum in the face of climate change. The research provides valuable insights for informing conservation strategies and emphasizes the ecological significance of this species in Nepal. Considering distribution patterns and elevation shifts, our study contributes to a comprehensive understanding of the species dynamics and supports effective conservation planning.

Keywords: Biomod2; Climate change; Ensemble modeling; Rhododendron arboreum; Species distribution modeling

Species, 2023, 24(74), e81s1590

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DOI: https://doi.org/10.54905/disssi.v24i74.e81s1590

Published: 12 October 2023